(HSV VIETNAM GROUP) – According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), which closed on November 12, the world raw material market is clearly differentiated.
However, the dominant selling force pushed the MXV-Index down slightly by 0.32% to 2,150 points. In the agricultural market, up to 6 out of 7 products were in the red, of which soybean oil led the decline with nearly 4%. In the opposite direction, the industrial raw materials market recorded positive developments when Arabica and Robusta coffee prices maintained their upward momentum for the 4th consecutive session, bringing the prices of these two products to the highest level in the past 6 weeks.
Closing yesterday's trading session, red covered most of the agricultural product market. In particular, soybean prices extended their upward momentum for the second consecutive session when weakening by more than 1%. In the context that the market does not have much new fundamental information, prices are mainly under pressure from the decline in soybean oil and technical selling pressure.
According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, rain in Argentina's key agricultural region last weekend supported and maintained this year's soybean planting rate at a high level. The South American country's main growing region recorded 7 - 15mm of rain, with the northern and eastern plains in particular receiving up to 40mm of rain in recent days. The weather is forecast to be dry in the next few days, creating conditions for farmers to continue planting on an area of 17.7 million hectares. With positive weather prospects in South America, supply in the market this year is likely to be high. This is the factor that has put pressure on prices.
On the contrary, in the Export Inspections report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said soybean deliveries in the weekly report reached 2.28 million tons, not much changed from 2.3 million tons in the previous week and higher than 2.01 million tons in the same period last year. This data shows that US soybean export activities were still relatively positive last week, contributing to restraining the decline of soybeans.
Soybean oil prices dropped nearly 4%, leading the decline of agricultural products. Markets under pressure following the general downtrend of the global oil market include crude oil, palm oil, and canola oil. Oil prices fell more than 2 USD/barrel yesterday after China's economic stimulus plan did not have much effect in increasing fuel demand in the world's second largest oil consumer.
On the domestic market, it was recorded yesterday, November 12, that the selling price of South American soybean meal to our country's port increased slightly. At Vung Tau port, the offered price of soybean meal for delivery in December 2024 fluctuates between 10,550 - 10,600 VND/kg. Meanwhile, for delivery in January next year, South American soybean meal is offered for sale around the price of 10,400 - 10,500 VND/kg. At Cai Lan port, the asking price was recorded 100 - 150 VND higher than at Vung Tau port.
Coffee prices rise to the highest in 6 weeks
Going against the downtrend of the whole market, buying power dominated the industrial raw materials market yesterday trading day. The highlight is two coffee items. Prices of two coffee products continued to improve with increases of 1.4% for Robusta coffee and 2.8% for Arabica coffee, respectively, reaching the highest level in the past 6 weeks. Absent new fundamental information, the market continues to receive support from concerns about the weather situation in Brazil and Vietnam.
BMI analysts note that Vietnam's sluggish exports have been tightening coffee supplies to the world and supporting prices in high price zones. Recent weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam have raised concerns about upcoming harvests in both countries.
Vietnam is entering the main coffee harvest of the 2024-2025 crop year. There are concerns that the impact of La Nina will cause rain, disrupting harvest progress and even reducing coffee output. Meanwhile, Brazil faces the risk of coffee trees harvested in the 2025-2026 crop year lacking water. Meteorologist Climatempo said that after a short period of rain in the middle of the week in Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest Arabica coffee growing state, in the next 10 days, this area will be hotter and drier.
In the context of uncertain coffee supply prospects for the next crop, Brazil has been promoting coffee exports in recent months. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE), announced that in October this country exported 4.93 million bags of coffee of all kinds, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2023.
In the domestic market, recorded this morning (November 13), coffee prices in the Central Highlands and Southeast fluctuated between 110,800 - 110,900 VND/kg. Compared to the same period last year, coffee prices are now nearly double from 60,200 - 61,000 VND/kg. Since the beginning of the year until now, coffee prices have increased by more than 40,000 VND/kg from 67,500 - 68,400 VND/kg.
Ha Diem HSV