(HSV VIETNAM GROUP) - Prices of coffee, pepper, durian, cocoa... increased continuously, setting and then breaking records, helping agricultural export turnover in the first quarter accelerate. In particular, the giant Chinese market is about to open for frozen durian and young coconuts, promising to bring spectacular growth for these two products this year.
Coffee, durian, rice... starting off like a dream
A report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that coffee is the export product with the strongest increase. Total export volume is nearly 800,000 tons, equivalent to a turnover of 1.9 billion USD, an increase of 44% in volume and 54% in value compared to the same period last year. This is a record export number for the Vietnamese coffee industry.
The actual developments of the coffee market are much more exciting, especially in the last days of March. On March 28, coffee prices in Vietnam reached 100,000 VND/kg, the highest of all time. From the beginning of the week until now, it has increased by 5,000 VND/kg. The world market increased for 3 consecutive sessions with a total increase of 201 USD to a new historic mark of 3,559 USD/ton. Many experts and businesses have refused to comment on the current coffee price because... it has increased too high, "beyond all imagination".
Faced with the sharp increase in coffee prices, the question that many people are interested in right now is what will happen in the future. Mr. Nguyen Dac Dat, Director of Nga Thanh Trading Company Limited in Krong No District (Dak Nong), said: Since the evening of March 26, the local coffee price has reached 100,000 VND/kg after world prices continuously increased many days before. Coffee prices keep increasing, making many coffee holders not dare to sell for fear of losses. This makes supply even more scarce, pushing prices to continue to escalate. Many units cannot collect goods to deliver to partners even though they have increased purchasing prices higher than the market average. The market situation is tense for a long time, but it is a "sweet" tension, especially for coffee growers. Previously, at the price mark of about 95,000 VND/kg, many farmers took profits in extreme excitement.
The coffee price fever has lasted for many months. Compared to the same period, the current coffee price has doubled, a price that surprised even those in this industry, from farmers, businesses, and market experts.
Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa), said: The current coffee price fever started in the 2022/23 crop year when Vietnam no longer had inventory. The shortage continues to this day and occurs in many other coffee producing countries.
"From 4 to 5 years ago, the area of Vietnamese coffee has shrunk due to low economic efficiency, while many other agricultural products, especially durian, are very high. People cut down coffee to replace it with durian and some other trees. When coffee prices improved, they encountered El Nino causing hot weather and drought. Therefore, in general, supply is still low, not enough to meet demand. Coffee prices increase sharply like today, of course there are many other reasons. But in terms of supply and demand, the price trend will continue to remain high because coffee is not a short-term crop, so it is not possible to increase production immediately, but too high a price can also have its risks," said Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai.
Having a dreamlike start in the new year includes fruits and vegetables, especially durian. In the first 2 months of this year, fresh durian exports reached 172 million USD, nearly double the same period in 2023. The average export price reached 4,417 USD/ton, up 19% over the same period last year. In March, Vietnam's durian supply in the Chinese market was still "alone in the market", so the value continued to reach a high level. The selling price of durian in buckets at the garden is up to 100,000 VND/kg, while first-class products cost from 140,000 - 160,000 VND/kg depending on quality.
From April onwards, the Mekong Delta provinces begin the main durian harvest. Vietnam's main durian crop will continue until October according to geographical regions from the West to the East and then to the Central Highlands provinces. If the situation is normal, when durian is in full harvest, Vietnam's fruit and vegetable export turnover will continue to increase sharply. In 2023, at its peak, durian exports will reach nearly half a billion USD in just one month. The acceleration of durian has made an important contribution to bringing the turnover of the fruit and vegetable industry in the first quarter of 2024 to 1.23 billion USD, an increase of nearly 26% over the same period last year. This is a record number for the fruit and vegetable export industry in the first quarter of many years.
Talking about a dreamlike start, we can't forget pepper. Pepper export price reached 4,153 USD/ton, an increase of 36%. Currently, farmers in pepper growing areas in the Central Highlands and Southeast are entering the final stage of the harvest season with prices remaining at a very high level, up to 96,000 VND/kg, up to 30,000 VND/kg higher than the same period in 2023.
In the first 2 months of 2024, Vietnam's pepper exports reached about 35,000 tons, worth 143 million USD, down 12.3% in volume, but up 13% in value compared to the same period in 2023. The average export price of pepper reached 4,041 USD/ton, up nearly 29% over the same period in 2023.
Open market for frozen durian and young coconut
In addition, China is preparing to sign a protocol with Vietnam for frozen durian and fresh coconut. Ms. Ngo Tuong Vy, General Director of Chanh Thu Fruit Import-Export Co., Ltd. (Ben Tre), excitedly said: "Previously, we have been exporting frozen durian products to markets such as Thailand, the US, EU, Japan... Recently, we have also prepared full procedures to bring goods into the Chinese market when the protocol is signed. We have been ready for this for a long time."
Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (VINAFRUIT), analyzed: The Chinese durian market in 2023 is worth nearly 7 billion USD, of which the frozen segment is worth about 1 billion USD, dominated by Thailand and Malaysia. Just like fresh durian products, when there is more supply from Vietnam, the market capacity expands further. Depending on the time the protocol is signed, if signed early, Vietnam's frozen durian export turnover in 2024 will reach 300 - 400 million USD.
"In addition to qualified packaging facilities to export frozen durians, investing in infrastructure for this is not too complicated. Therefore, in the near future, there will be many units investing in this stage. Standard durians will be exported fresh, while non-standard fruits will be separated into rice and frozen. Thus, durian products have a wide export route, without worrying about falling prices because of "in-stock" when Thai durians are in harvest," said Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen.
Frozen durian comes in many forms such as durian fruit with skin, pureed durian, and durian rice without skin. In 2023, Vietnam's frozen durian exports reach 137 million USD, the average export price is 2,632 USD/ton. In the first 2 months of 2024, frozen durian products reached 13 million USD, an increase of 29% over the same period in 2023. The export price of frozen durian increased to 3,966 USD/ton, equivalent to an increase of 47% over the same period.
"If the signing of the protocol goes smoothly, durian exports in 2024 can reach 3.5 billion USD, an increase of more than 1 billion USD compared to 2023. Thereby, raising Vietnam's total fruit and vegetable export turnover for the whole year to 6.5 - 7 billion USD," Mr. Nguyen calculated.
The above numbers are completely based on the fact that in April, the time the Western provinces enter the main durian harvest season is also the time when durians in the Eastern provinces of Thailand enter fruit picking season. Last year, competition from Thai durians had a little impact on the price of Vietnamese durians, but this year if frozen durians are exported, durian prices will continue to remain high.
Along with frozen durian, fresh coconut is also a commodity preparing to sign a protocol with China. Mr. Cao Ba Dang Khoa, General Secretary of the Coconut Association, enthusiastically said: From growing areas to processing factories, we are ready for the opportunity to export fresh coconuts to the market of 1.4 billion people. Regarding growing areas, the coconut area in the South Central and Southern regions has increased by about 50,000 hectares recently. Processing factories from preliminary processing to convenient, high-value products are also prepared.
Ha Diem HSV