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Gold prices continue to break records, oil increases, robusta coffee is at its highest in 16 years

8 Mar 2024

Gold prices continue to break records, oil increases, robusta coffee is at its highest in 16 years

(HSV VIETNAM GROUP) - At the end of the March 6 session, oil prices increased by about 1%, gold continued to reach a new record, copper, rubber, and sugar all increased, and robusta coffee increased by more than 4% to the highest level in 16 years.

Oil prices rose about 1% as US crude inventories rose less than expected, gasoline and distillate stocks fell sharply and the US Federal Reserve Chairman said he still expected to lower interest rates this year.

Falling interest rates could increase oil demand by boosting economic growth.

Closing the session on March 6, Brent crude oil increased 0.92 USD or 1.1% to 82.96 USD/barrel, while WTI crude oil increased 0.98 USD or 1.3% to 79.13 USD/barrel. This caused Brent oil to have its first increase in 5 sessions.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy companies added 1.4 million barrels of inventory less than expected in the week ended March 1, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell more than expected.

As for crude oil reserves, analysts in the Reuters poll forecast an increase of 2.1 million barrels and the American Petroleum Institute (API) data forecast an increase of 0.4 million barrels.

Energy companies also withdrew 4.1 million barrels from distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, and withdrew 4.5 million barrels of gasoline from stocks last week. Meanwhile, analysts forecast a decrease in distillate reserves of 0.7 million barrels and a decrease in gasoline of 1.6 million barrels.

Investors see signs of the Fed cutting interest rates as positive for the economy and oil demand. US private sector employment figures rose less than expected in February, strengthening the case for interest rate cuts. The USD fell to a one-month low against a basket of other currencies after Powell's comments.

A weak dollar could boost oil demand by making the fuel cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

Gold continues to set records

Gold prices rose to a new record mainly thanks to bets on US monetary easing, while palladium rose again above the $1,000 mark for the first time since January 12.

Spot gold increased 0.8% to 2,145.09 USD/ounce after reaching a record level of 2,152.09 USD/ounce this session. US gold futures in April closed up 0.8% to 2,158.2 UASD/ounce. Silver rose 1.9% to $24.15 an ounce.

Gold gained further as the USD fell after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated an interest rate cut by the end of the year.

Gold suffers as high US interest rates boost returns from competing assets such as bonds and push up the dollar, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.

Meanwhile, platinum rose about 3% to $906.70 an ounce while palladium rose nearly 10% to $1,035.83 an ounce.

Dong increased due to weak USD and low reserves

Copper prices rose in London as a weaker USD and falling reserves outweighed concerns about the lack of major stimulus from China.

Copper delivered after 3 months on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased 0.9% to 8,565.5 USD/ton.

The dollar index fell after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said continued progress on inflation was not assured, although the central bank still expected to lower interest rates later this year.

LME copper reserves continue to decline and reach a new 6-month low.

A Reuters poll showed China's export growth may have slowed in the first two months of this year, suggesting manufacturers still have difficulty attracting overseas buyers.

Dalian iron ore decreased due to weak steel market

Dalian iron ore prices fell because the steel market continued to be weak and the lack of major stimulus packages from China.

May iron ore futures contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, China closed down 0.23% to 881.5 CNY (122.44 USD)/ton.

Policymakers of China, the world's second largest economy, on March 5 laid out important economic goals for 2024 at the annual parliamentary meeting. The key figures were largely in line with market expectations, disappointing those looking for greater stimulus in favor of metals consumption.

April iron ore futures on the Singapore exchange increased 0.75% to 115.3 USD/ton.

In Shanghai, steel prices fell amid weak demand. Bar steel decreased by 0.7%, hot rolled steel coil decreased by 0.77%, steel wire coil decreased by 1.25% and stainless steel decreased by 0.8%.

Japanese rubber increased for the second consecutive session

Japanese rubber prices rose for a second consecutive session amid high oil prices and weather concerns in top producer Thailand, while expansion plans by Chinese and Japanese producers continued to boost market sentiment further.

The August rubber contract on the Osaka exchange closed up 0.5 JPY, or 0.17%, to 299.9 JPY (2 USD)/kg.

In Shanghai, rubber for May delivery increased by 35 CNY to 13,805 CNY (1,917.55 USD)/ton.

Oil prices recovered in the context of major producers cutting production.

Natural rubber often follows oil price adjustments when competing for market share with synthetic rubber produced from crude oil.

The Thai Meteorological Agency warned of very hot weather in upstream Thailand from March 6 - 8 and summer storms in this area from March 8 - 10, potentially causing damage to crops.

Robusta coffee increased 4% to a 16-year high

Robusta coffee futures in May closed up 129 USD or 4.1% to 3,309 USD/ton after reaching 3,328 USD, the highest price since the current form of contract began trading in January 2008.

Exporters are having difficulty procuring coffee in Vietnam, with some farmers waiting for prices to rise while shipments to Europe have been delayed by attacks in the Red Sea contributing to supply constraints.

ICE's coffee reserves only reached 23,350 tons as of March 5, down sharply from 74,000 tons a year ago.

Arabica coffee futures in May increased 1.6% to 1,863 USD/lb.

Brazil exported 3.61 million bags of coffee in February, 77% more than a year ago.

Ha Diem HSV

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