(HSV VIETNAM GROUP) – Data from the General Statistics Office shows that merchandise export turnover in September 2023 reached 31.41 billion USD, although down 4.1% compared to the previous month, but recorded as the third consecutive month exceeding the threshold of 30 billion USD. Thanks to improved export orders, some industries have escaped the "hibernation" situation.
If compared with other countries in the region and developed economies in the world, Vietnam's economic growth is still high.
Many 'indicators' of recovery
Mr. Thang Van Thong, Deputy Head of the Vietnam Wood Chip Association (Vietnam Wood and Forest Products Association), said businesses in the wood industry have had new orders, workers have returned to work overtime and recruited more workers.
In the first 9 months of 2023, the export value of wooden products is estimated to reach 6.5 billion USD, down 24% compared to the same period in 2022. However, according to annual practice, the demand for wood and wood products, especially the wooden furniture group, will tend to increase sharply at the end of the year, when the housing market is complete and the need to replace furniture increases to meet the festive season.
Along with that, in key export markets such as the US and EU, inventory is decreasing and import demand is expected to increase, creating an opportunity for wood industry businesses to receive orders in the coming months.
Regarding domestic consumption, Mr. Nguyen Anh Duc, General Director of Ho Chi Minh City Union of Trading Cooperatives (Saigon Co.op), said that the retail industry and the growth of trade and services of the whole country have recovered as before the epidemic (2019). Currently, retail businesses are making efforts to restructure operations in the following directions: Ensuring changes in the structure of product sources to suit the shift and restructuring according to consumer needs and habits; embracing sustainable and green economy, digitalization and innovation.
Mr. Duc suggested that the Government's recent policies focusing on consumers need to be systematic in scale, such as applying a 2% value-added tax reduction as recently, in addition, there needs to be policies focusing on businesses that are facing more difficulties.
According to Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), from the end of the second quarter of 2023 until now, the real estate market is still difficult, but the level of difficulty shows signs of easing and gradually recovering. Real estate investment, construction, and business activities are one of the 21 largest economic sectors, with a huge spillover to the country's economy.
Financial 'leverage'
However, over the past 15 years, the real estate market has gone through many "ups and downs" with periods of "bubble", "freeze", "recovery, re-development" crisis and then crisis mixed with recovery. "Although overall, the real estate market has developed strongly in the last 20 years, but so far it has not yet achieved the goal of safe, healthy and sustainable development," Mr. Chau said.
Therefore, the Government needs to have more fundamental solutions to sustainably develop Vietnam's real estate market and remove policy mechanisms. Specifically, solutions on building and completing a number of mechanisms and policies of the draft Law on Credit Institutions (amended) and using credit tools to regulate the real estate market for safe, strong and sustainable development.
HoREA recognizes that credit is an effective tool to regulate the real estate market, especially when the market shows signs of "instability" such as "bubbles", signs of speculation or depression, even recession, freezing... The State Bank needs urgent solutions to improve access to credit for people and businesses.
In addition, the recovery indicators of the economy are also reflected in Vietnam's economic growth figures for the first 9 months of 2023. According to the General Statistics Office, gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter is estimated to increase by 5.33%, GDP in the first 9 months of 2023 will increase by 4.24% over the same period last year, only higher than the growth rate of 2.19% and 1.57% of the first 9 months of 2020 and 2021 in the period 2011 - 2023. However, compared to other countries in the region and developed economies in the world, Vietnam's economic growth is still high.
According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, General Director of the General Statistics Office, to have solutions to overcome difficulties and proactively exploit opportunities, the Government needs to continue to focus on quickly and effectively implementing financial and monetary guidelines and policies.
Specifically, closely monitor and promptly update developments in the world situation, fiscal and monetary policies of countries with large economies and important trade and investment partners for Vietnam. At the same time, effectively implement solutions on currency and interest rates to support businesses in recovering and developing production and business; Manage appropriate exchange rates.
Along with that, promote consumption through solutions focusing on developing the domestic market; Effectively implement trade promotion programs, promoting goods distribution via digital platforms and e-commerce to expand domestic consumption.
Export orders gradually returning, domestic consumer demand, real estate market gradually recovering... are some of the many optimistic signals of the Vietnamese economy in the first 9 months of 2023. Is the Vietnamese economy bottoming out yet, and are there any difficulties standing in the way in the near future?
Ha Diem HSV