(HSV VIETNAM GROUP) – The Year of the Snake 2025 ends with many outstanding impressions of Vietnam's economy, the results achieved by the steel industry in a challenging general context such as the global economic recession, political conflicts in regions, including the world steel industry. In 2025, the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) has been and continues to accompany member businesses, actively working in providing market information and policies related to the domestic and international steel industry; Connect and exchange support for member businesses' problems accurately and promptly for business production planning and at the same time towards the goal of sustainable development. Below are the highlights of Vietnam's steel industry and the activities of VSA and steel enterprises in 2025 - Outlook for 2026.
Term VI Congress (2025-2030): Vietnam Steel Association accompanies Vietnamese steel enterprises, green growth, digital transformation, reaching modernity
According to the Operation Charter approved by the Ministry of Home Affairs, VSA successfully organized the Congress term VI (2025 - 2030) in Hanoi. This is the most important event of VSA and its member businesses that have accompanied and stuck together for the past 25 years.
The 6th Congress of the Association will open a new level with activities of the Association and businesses that will be associated with the theme "Vietnam Steel Association accompanies Vietnamese steel businesses, green growth, digital transformation, reaching modernity". During the VI term, VSA aims to continue accompanying steel businesses in improving technology, improving productivity and product quality. VSA will also promote trade promotion, expand export markets, and support businesses in responding to trade defense lawsuits to protect domestic interests.
Steel production has grown most impressively in the last 5 years
With Vietnam's internal economic growth (GDP) reaching 8.02%, the highest increase in the period 2021-2025, it is a great effort in the context of a very difficult global situation. In particular, industrial production growth is estimated at 9.73%, also the highest increase since 2020, positively affecting the steel industry.
Vietnam's steel market in 2025 gradually recovers and achieves positive growth throughout the year. Steel businesses accompany and effectively participate in supporting reconstruction with regions recovering from natural disasters, especially typhoons Bualo, Matmo, etc. Crude steel production output for the whole year 2025 reached a record high in the last 5 years, surpassing the previous 2020 mark of 24.7 million tons, up 12% over the same period in 2024; Consumption reached 24.1 million tons, up 12.9% over the same period; Of which exports reached 3.15 million tons, an increase of 12.8% over the same period in 2024. This shows the trend of modern Vietnamese steel industry, synchronizing closed metallurgical complexes, from upstream to downstream.
Vietnam steel industry aims to produce "Green Steel"
In the past 5 years, in addition to the policies of Vietnamese State Agencies to realize the commitment to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050 at COP26, VSA has been and continues to accompany steel businesses to research green transformation roadmap policies of Vietnam, the regional and world steel industry to inform and widely deploy in the steel business community.
Leading steel factories have been practicing EGS, achieving "Green" certifications such as "Responsibility Steel" by NS Bluescope Vietnam, Environmental Product Declaration (EDP) by Posco Yamato Steel, etc. and other steel enterprises.
The foundation for developing high quality steel lines
In December 2025, Vietnam started construction of the Hoa Phat Dung Quat Special Steel and Ray Manufacturing Factory with a total investment capital of more than 10,000 billion VND, design capacity of 700,000 tons/year. The factory is invested in the world's most modern technological lines from SMS Group (Germany) and Primetals (UK), using a super flexible four-axis rolling rack system with high precision. This is the first "Made in Vietnam" steel rail factory in Southeast Asia. The first high-speed rail rail product is expected to be launched in 2027, helping Hoa Phat become the first and only enterprise in Southeast Asia to produce this type of steel, ready to supply key railway projects.
Successful in many anti-dumping cases in export markets
In 2025, Vietnam's steel industry will achieve many positive results in anti-dumping cases and trade reviews of steel products in export markets such as the European Union (EU), Canada, Australia, India, etc. Accordingly, Vietnamese steel products have an anti-dumping tax rate on steel exports from Vietnam reaching 0% or a lower tax margin than other countries under investigation. This helps Vietnam's steel export businesses maintain their competitive advantage and support the global export chain.
In addition, some countries also issued the conclusion that there is NO non-existence of a non-market economic situation in Vietnam's steel industry in response to the EU's investigation conclusions in the HRC anti-dumping case, Canada's investigation of steel straps, etc. This conclusion, when officially issued, will be a good precedent for other cases of Canada and other countries in the future with steel in particular and other export products of Vietnam in general, such as non-market economic investigation cases, special market situations being conducted by Mexico, the EU, etc. with Vietnamese steel enterprises.
Challenges and survival of the steel industry in 2025
In addition to the encouraging results achieved in 2025 such as the highest production growth in the past 5 years, the tireless efforts of the steel business community in participating in trade defense cases for steel exported to countries and regions globally, adapting to the national strategy on climate change, etc., the Association's activities as well as steel businesses face challenges such as:
Complete the organizational structure of the Association's leadership apparatus and operating methods in the new term;
Steel production growth is quite positive, however the steel market faces difficulties from green standard technical barriers (CBAM, etc.), rules of origin, etc.; In particular, it is cooperation between upstream and downstream manufacturers, creating a sustainable supply chain of goods.
Awareness of green transformation is only shown on the surface, but in action, there is still confusion and slowness from investment in technology transformation to the green supply chain;
The number of trade defense lawsuits related to Vietnam's exported steel products continues to increase in number; Form of cases (such as dual anti-dumping and anti-subsidy lawsuits, or allegations of special market situations, etc.) entails expensive costs for hiring lawyers, along with a long time to participate in the appeal (on average, one case until a preliminary conclusion is ~1 year); and the results of some cases did not achieve the desired results of the Association and related businesses (such as high anti-dumping tax, etc.
Outlook 2026: Vietnam Steel Industry and Green Supply Chain
Entering the year of the Horse, Vietnam's steel industry is entering a new chapter with new opportunities and challenges. 2026 - the first year of implementing the Resolution of the Executive Committee term VI (2025-2030) of the Association and steel member enterprises operating in the direction of "Green growth, digital transformation, reaching modernity".
On January 8, 2026, the Government issued and implemented Resolution No. 01/ND-CP on main tasks and solutions to implement the 2026 Socio-Economic Development Plan with national GDP growth of 10% or more; in which industrial growth reached ~11%.
Accordingly, Vietnam's steel industry in 2026 is forecast to grow strongly by ~8-10%, finished steel production is forecast to reach about 33-34.5 million tons, and domestic steel consumption demand is estimated to reach about 26 million tons.
The main growth drivers come from the demand for steel consumption in the domestic market such as public investment policies (highways, airports), civil real estate recovery, and large projects coming into operation.
Vietnam's steel industry continues the trend of producing and using environmentally friendly products in the global sustainable development strategy, especially with the Vietnamese Government's commitment at COP26 to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
From January 1, 2026, the European Union's (EU) border carbon adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will no longer be a pilot reporting obligation, but will switch to a mechanism with real costs and clear financial risks with effect from that date. Early preparation will increase competitive efficiency for CBAM-compliant businesses, and maintain their market share in the EU market.
In 2026, VSA and its member businesses continue to set the goal of strongly promoting the green transformation process of Vietnam's steel industry such as supporting businesses to raise awareness of the importance of sustainability. VSA will focus on specific activities such as: strengthening international cooperation, building connection networks, organizing forums, seminars, building green production standards, organizing training courses, building pilot projects and supporting businesses to access capital. Green, steel businesses improve competitiveness and contribute to building a sustainable Vietnamese steel industry.
Ha Diem HSV