(HSV VIETNAM GROUP) – The average export coffee price in January 2024 increased again, reaching 2,955 USD/ton, up 2.3% over the previous month and up 35.2% over the same period in 2023.
Vietnam's coffee exports in January 2024 continued to increase
According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), at the end of the trading day on January 29, Robusta price increased slightly by 0.18%, to 3,275 USD/ton, the highest level in 30 years. Fears of local supply shortages continue to keep prices anchored high.
Robusta inventory on the ICE-EU Department as of January 28 was at 29,770 tons, down 1,030 tons compared to the previous session's closing report. Thus, the total amount of Robusta stored is at a historic low. Alarming inventories in the context of interrupted coffee supply from Asia have increased concerns about supply shortages in the market.
On the contrary, Arabica prices decreased by 2.37% compared to the reference, the exchange rate difference between the currencies of the two largest exporting and importing countries in the world increased, putting pressure on prices.
Accordingly, the USD strengthened during the half session last night, while the domestic Brazilian Real weakened. This caused the USD/BRL exchange rate to increase sharply by 0.71%. The spread between the two currencies has been loosened somewhat, helping to stimulate Brazilian farmers' demand for coffee sales by earning more foreign currency.
In addition, standard Arabica inventory on ICE-US at the end of the January 26 session decreased by another 5,130 bags of 60kg. However, the ICE Department has 73,708 bags waiting for certification, with more than 50,000 bags coming from Brazil. This is still a good surplus for inventory to recover in the near future when coffee certification activities are promoted.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee production in the 2022-2023 crop year will decrease, and exports will also decrease. In particular, a sharp decrease in Vietnam and Colombia, leading to a decline in exports, is the main reason for this adjustment.
Colombia's Arabica coffee production is forecast to increase by 800,000 bags to 11.5 million bags thanks to higher yields. Even so, Colombia's output is still nearly 15% below the annual average. Vietnam's Robusta coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is about 26.6 million bags, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous crop year; while arabica decreased by 11.1% to 880,000 bags.
In India, coffee production is forecast to remain almost unchanged compared to the previous crop year, at 6 million bags. In the 2023-2024 crop year, India's Arabica coffee output is forecast to decrease by 200,000 bags to 1.4 million bags.
According to preliminary data from the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's coffee exports in January 2024 continued to increase, estimated at 210,000 tons, with a turnover of 621 million USD, up 1.1% in volume and up 3.5% in turnover compared to the previous month; Strong increase of 47.6% in volume and 99.6% in turnover compared to the same period in 2023.
The average export coffee price in January 2024 increased again, reaching 2,955 USD/ton, up 2.3% over the previous month and up 35.2% over the same period in 2023.
Ha Diem HSV