(HSV VIETNAM GROUP) – The agricultural sector will export 53 billion USD in 2023, the target for 2024 is 55 billion USD; Products such as vegetables, rice, coffee, cashew nuts, pepper... continue to be expected to bring many surprises.
Durian exports continue to go well, potentially reaching 3.5 billion USD
Rice and durian will maintain high prices and large quantities
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) said that the total export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in 2023 will reach 53 billion USD, about 200 million USD lower than in 2022. However, it will be a year with a record trade surplus of over 12 billion USD, an increase of 43.7% compared to 2022 and accounting for 42.5% of the country's trade surplus. There are up to 6 items with an export value of over 3 billion USD: vegetables, rice, cashew nuts, coffee, shrimp, wood and wooden products.
"In the context of many unpredictable fluctuations in the domestic and world economy, the agricultural sector continues to affirm its important position and is the pillar of the economy," Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien affirmed the role of the agricultural sector.
In the picture with many bright colors of the agricultural industry, durian is the most positive factor. According to Deputy Minister Tien, when Vietnam and China signed the official durian import-export protocol, the value of this fruit was forecast to reach just over 1 billion USD, but by the end of 2023 it would exceed more than 2 billion USD. In 2024, if China agrees to officially import frozen durian, the export value of durian fruit will increase very strongly. Currently, the Vietnamese and Chinese authorities have completed technical negotiations to sign a protocol to export frozen durian and fresh coconut to China, then will reach a consensus and sign the protocol.
Leaders of businesses and industry associations share the same opinion that in 2024, Vietnam's agricultural exports will continue to be favorable and steady on the way to the target of 55 billion USD.
"Thanks to high market demand, Vietnam has an advantage, so Vietnamese agricultural products will continue to export smoothly in both quantity and price in 2024," said Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Board of Directors and General Director of Intimex Group Joint Stock Company. Mr. Nam is also Vice President of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) and is widely known as one of Vietnam's leading agricultural exporters specializing in items such as rice, coffee, pepper... Also in 2023, rice exports reached an unprecedented turnover - nearly 4.8 billion USD, an increase of 38.4% equivalent to 1.3 billion USD compared to 2022. Commenting on market opportunities in 2024, Mr. Do Ha Nam commented: "In 2023, the price of 5% broken rice in Vietnam will at times reach very high levels, the highest in 15 years of export. In 2024, we do not expect the price to reach that high, because rice is an essential food item for the majority and ordinary consumers. But with the current weather and political situation, the export price of 5% broken rice still maintains above 600 USD/ton, equivalent to Rice prices remain above 8,000 VND/kg. This is also a price that rice farmers are very satisfied with."
According to Mr. Nam, over the years, Vietnamese rice has affirmed its brand and quality in many regional and world markets such as the EU, Philippines, China, Africa... and will continue to be consumed well in these markets. As for the Chinese market, this is a country that is very well prepared for food security issues and has not been affected by world rice prices in the past. However, that is why the need to supplement rice reserves is also an issue that this country always has to consider.
The world depends on Vietnamese coffee
In 2023, coffee exports will reach nearly 4.2 billion USD, an increase of 3.1% compared to 2022. This is an unprecedented milestone in the history of exports over the past 30 years, due to rising coffee prices.
Commenting on the Vietnamese coffee market in 2024, Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, Director of Vinh Hiep Co., Ltd. and Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, said: Gone are the days when domestic coffee prices were 30,000 - 40,000 VND/kg. The price trend of Vietnamese coffee in 2024 and future years will continue to maintain the level of 60,000 - 70,000 VND/kg. One of the evidence for this is that Vietnam's coffee harvest is currently at its peak. Normally in previous years, this season coffee prices dropped sharply because of abundant supply, but this year they are still at a record high. The root cause is that the quality of Vietnamese robusta coffee has always improved over the years and is currently the best in the world. Second, the demand for this product is increasing both domestically in Vietnam and in countries around the world. Third, robusta supply is limited, expected to decrease by about 20% in 2023.
Coffee output has decreased because in recent years, coffee prices have been low, many farmers have gradually switched to other crops with higher economic value, especially durian. Meanwhile, Vietnam is no longer able to expand its coffee area, especially now that the EU has introduced regulations related to anti-deforestation. Therefore, coffee output continues to be in short supply. That's not to mention the extreme dry weather caused by the ongoing El Nino phenomenon.
"The coffee situation has reversed and the world is dependent on coffee supply from Vietnam. Although output has decreased, prices have increased sharply and doubled in previous years, so we do not worry about export turnover decreasing but need to focus on quality and branding to increase value. I believe that coffee export turnover in 2024 will reach a positive level from 2023 or higher", Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep commented.
Having a similar opinion, Mr. Do Ha Nam emphasized: "The price of coffee has never been as high as it is right from the beginning of the season. This reflects that the market demand is very large while the supply is in short supply. If we consider the crop in other exporting countries, Vietnam will still be alone in the market until the end of April and early May 2024, when Indonesia and Brazil will begin their harvest. Therefore, it can be said that the 2023/24 coffee season will be the same." Vietnam's is the best in history".
Regarding the coffee growing area, Mr. Nam explained: Previously, coffee prices were low so gardeners switched to higher value crops. Now that coffee prices are very good, this conversion will not happen so massively anymore. Not to mention durian requires an investment of 4-5 years to harvest and faces many market risks... Meanwhile, coffee, like Lam Dong province, the largest growing region in Vietnam with an output of about 500,000 tons/year, is of high quality and has great profits, so they certainly will not take risks.
"It is important that export businesses need to be calm before opportunities, evaluate and analyze the market thoroughly. Specifically, for pepper, Vietnam's output accounts for 50% of the world market share; as long as businesses do not sell out, we do not worry about losing prices," Mr. Nam recommended.
Ha Diem HSV