(HSV VIETNAM GROUP) - According to Chinese customs data, the country's finished steel exports in October reached 11.182 million tons, up 40.9% over the same period last year and is the second record high in history, only after September 2015 with 11.25 million tons.
It is forecast that China's steel exports may gradually decrease in the coming months but still maintain a high level at least in the first half of 2025. However, steel exports for the whole year 2025 may decrease compared to 2024 in the context of increasing trade conflicts and the possibility that Donald Trump's administration will increase import taxes on the US, which is expected to cause a lot of instability in global trade, especially in the second half of 2025.
In October 2024, China's finished steel exports increased by 10.1% compared to September, recording the third consecutive month of increase. In the first 10 months of 2024, steel exports reached 91.893 million tons, up 23.3% over the same period last year, with an average of 301,289 tons/day. If this level continues, total finished steel exports in 2024 could reach over 110.27 million tons, an increase of 22.2% compared to 2023, according to calculations by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Weak domestic demand caused Chinese steel prices to fall sharply from July to August 2024, leading to a large number of export orders from abroad. This is the reason why exports increased sharply in October, and may remain high in November. However, when domestic steel prices began to increase due to the Government's economic stimulus measures, export orders have gradually decreased, expected to affect export volumes from December 2024 to February next year.
Forecasting for 2025, some sources say that steel exports will decrease compared to the peak in October 2024 but remain at a high level in the first half of the year. However, in the second half of 2025, exports may decline due to increased trade conflicts and reduced demand from abroad. China's finished steel exports in 2025 may drop to only 80-90 million tons.
Meanwhile, the country's finished steel imports in October decreased by 3.3% over the previous month and down by 19.8% over the same period last year, to 536,000 tons. In the first 10 months of 2024, steel imports decreased by 10.1% over the same period to 5.721 million tons. Therefore, China's net export of finished steel products in 10 months reached 86.172 million tons, up 26.4% over the same period.
Ha Diem HSV