(HSV VIETNAM GROUP) - With a "huge" turnover increase of 67.5% over the same period last year, Vietnam's coffee exports in the first 6 months of 2025 reached a turnover of 5.47 billion USD and by July 3 had exceeded the record number of the whole year 2024...
Coffee exports for the whole year 2025 will exceed the 7.5 billion USD mark.
Vietnam's coffee industry has just received another good news, which is that the reciprocal tax rate in the United States that will be applied to Vietnamese agricultural products may be at 20% from July 10. Although this tax rate is double the tax rate in the past 3 months, it is likely to be lower than the reciprocal tax rate that the United States will impose on Brazilian and Colombian coffee.
The effect of the latest tax information in the United States has caused Vietnamese coffee prices on July 3 and the morning of July 4 to rebound after a series of more than 2 months of price decreases.
Vietnam's coffee exports in 2024 reach 1.32 million tons, with a turnover of 5.48 billion USD. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in June 2025, Vietnam exported 130 thousand tons of coffee, bringing in 741.1 million USD. Cumulatively in the first 6 months of 2025, coffee exports reached 953.9 thousand tons and 5.45 billion USD, up 5.3% in volume and 67.5% in value compared to the same period in 2024. By the end of July 3, coffee export turnover was estimated at 5.5 billion USD, surpassing the record mark of the whole year 2025 to set a new record.
"The average export coffee price in the first 6 months of 2025 is estimated to reach 5708.3 USD/ton, up 59.1% over the same period in 2024."
Germany, Italy and Spain are Vietnam's three largest coffee consumption markets, accounting for market shares of 16.3%, 7.9% and 7.4% respectively. Compared to the same period last year, the value of coffee exports in the first 5 months of 2025 to the German market increased 2.2 times, the Italian market increased 45.1%, and the Spanish market increased 55.8%. Among the 15 largest export markets, coffee export value increased the most in the 16 Mexican market with an increase of 71.6 times and the lowest increase in the Chinese market with an increase of 22.9%.
Although this year's coffee price is one and a half times higher than the average in 2024, in the past 2 months this product has witnessed a very strong price decrease. At the end of March 2025, the domestic coffee price in the Central Highlands provinces reached a record mark of 132,000 VND/kg, then by the end of June 2025 it fell below the mark of 93,000-94,000 VND/kg.
On the world market on March 30, 2025, the price of Robusta coffee on the London floor fluctuated between 5,202 - 5,409 USD/ton. By June 25, 2025, the price of Robusta coffee on the London floor only fluctuates at 3,554 - 4,036 USD/ton.
On July 3, 2025, there was information about Vietnam reaching a tax agreement with the United States, with the US tax rate applied to Vietnamese agricultural products exported to the United States possibly being at 20%. On July 3 and the morning of July 4, Robusta coffee prices rebounded. In the Central Highlands provinces on the morning of July 4, 2025, the common coffee price is in the range of 95,300 - 95,800 VND/kg, an increase of 200-300 VND/kg compared to July 3.
Specifically in the Di Linh, Lam Ha, Bao Loc area (Lam Dong province), the price of 4/7 coffee is purchased at 95,300 VND/kg. In Cu M'gar area (Dak Lak), coffee price is 95,800 VND/kg. At Ea H'leo, Buon Ho, the purchasing price of coffee is the same at 95,700 VND/kg. Similarly, in the Dak Nong area (Lam Dong province), the purchasing price of coffee is at 95,800 VND/kg; In Gia Nghia and in Dak R'lap it is 95,700 VND/kg. In Gia Lai province, coffee prices are at 95,600 VND/kg in Chu Prong.
On the world coffee market, at the end of the trading session on July 3, 2025, the price of Robusta coffee on the London floor for delivery in July 2025 increased by 25 USD/ton compared to July 2, at 3,627 USD/ton; delivered in September 2025 increased by 18 USD/ton, at 3,569 USD/ton.
Meanwhile, in contrast to Robusta coffee, Arabica coffee prices on the world market continue to decrease continuously. At the end of the trading session on July 3 on the New York floor, the price of Arabica coffee delivered in July 2025 decreased by 1.6 cents/lb, at 289.6 cents/lb, for delivery in September 2025 decreased by 1.2 cents/lb, at 284.15 cents/lb.
COFFEE EXPORT FULL YEAR 2025: "HOLD SURE" 7.5 BILLION USD
Explaining the contrasting developments of Robusta and Arabica coffee, some analyzes say that Robusta coffee is mainly produced in Vietnam. Last night Hanoi time, President Trump announced that the United States would significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs on Vietnamese goods. "I just reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. Details will be provided later!" - Mr. Trump wrote briefly on the social network Truth Social.
Before posting this message, President Donald Trump had a phone call with General Secretary To Lam. President Donald Trump highly appreciated Vietnam's commitment to providing preferential market access for US goods, including large-displacement cars. He affirmed that the United States will significantly reduce reciprocal taxes for many Vietnamese export goods.
The fact that the United States reached a tax agreement with Vietnam has affected Vietnamese coffee prices. With a price that can be applied at 20%, much lower than the tax rate that the United States will impose on Brazilian and Colombian goods, it will make Vietnamese coffee compete better than its competitors.
Meanwhile, coffee produced in Brazil and Colombia is mostly Arabica coffee. Strong supply from Brazil and the rising USD are the main factors causing Arabica coffee's price to not recover. Consulting firm Safras & Mercado estimates that as of the end of June, nearly 51% of Brazil's new coffee crop had been harvested. The weather in this country is also quite favorable, although there have been concerns about freezing conditions in the winter.
In addition, speculation also strongly sold off Arabica coffee yesterday session before the US Independence Day holiday. Given the erratic movements of coffee prices, speculators do not tend to hold stocks before long holidays for fear of risk.
In the early morning of July 4, on the US market, the US Dollar Index (DXY) measuring the fluctuation of the greenback against 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF) increased 0.36%, to 97.12.
The dollar rose after data showed the US economy created more jobs than expected, signaling that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Vietnam's coffee output in the 2025/26 crop year will reach 31 million bags (converted to green coffee beans). Of which, Robusta output is estimated at 30 million bags, while Arabica output is about 1 million bags. Rising coffee prices and favorable weather conditions will contribute to improving Vietnam's productivity and coffee output, and will help Vietnam's coffee exports continue to grow strongly in the second half of 2025.
Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment on July 3 predicted that Vietnam's coffee exports in 2025 will "firmly" reach 7.5 billion USD, possibly even exceeding 8 billion USD, far exceeding the target set at the beginning of the year.
Ha Diem HSV